On Tuesday, researchers have predicted that United States may have to extend the social distancing measures including stay-at-home and school closure recommendations until 2022. By that time there will be vaccine available for the public.
The findings came from a group of researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health who on Tuesday published their reports in the journal Science. The assumptions negate the Trump administrations belief which suggests that the disease may vanish by the summer this year.
The team in their research used the past and present data related with other viruses and novel Coronavirus in their assumption as they created different possible scenarios linked with the disease in United States.
“Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available,” they wrote in their report. “Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.”
The projections touted in the result also suggest that the virus would come with the full velocity once the lockdown across the state is lifted.
“If intermittent distancing is the approach that’s chosen, it may be necessary to do it for several years, which is obviously a very long time,” Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author on the study and an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, told reporters.
Will the public be able to develop their immune against Covid-19 after getting infected, is another important factor that will determine the feature of pandemic and its impacts on the social order.
At present the potential challenges include finding a reliable test to gauge who possesses the antibodies that can fight the virus, determining the level of immunity that came with the previous coronaviruses and how long it lasts and of course boosting the capacity of health systems to test a large number of public for antibodies.
Another thing is the immunity certificates akin to those given in United Kingdom which can identify the black and whites in the society helping those with certificates to return to a more normal life while others face reclusiveness.
The Harvard team admitted that such prolonged social distancing measures, even inconsistent and varying would have “profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences.” However, they seemed hopeful that their work will allow to track likely trajectories of the virus under alternative approaches, identify mechanism to fight it, and prompt further ideas and ways needed to control it. While Covid-19 is not looking to anywhere soon in US, social distancing and shutdown seems to be effective in curbing the outspread.
Social distancing in “one of the most powerful weapons” against the virus, said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“If we can just maximize that social distancing, we can limit this virus’s ability,” he suggested earlier this month.
States across the US have extended the stay-at-home recommendations for public allowing only essential-movement. Penalties for violating the restrictions may very state to state. In Maine, the offender of the orders may serve a 6 month jail sentence and up to USD 1,000 fine.
This week states on East and West Coasts including Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, California, Oregon and Washington announced they are making arrangements including a regional pact to deal with the situation after the lifting of stay-at-home-orders and reopening of the economy in the country.